Today in Real Estate: Rates Ease, Jobs Cool, and Inventory Builds (August 2, 2025)

by William Gartin

Today in Real Estate: Rates Ease, Jobs Cool, and Inventory Builds (August 2, 2025)

At a glance

Mortgage rates edged down this week: 30-year fixed at 6.72%, 15-year at 5.85%. GlobeNewswire
Jobs report disappointed (only 73,000 jobs added; unemployment 4.2%), boosting hopes that borrowing costs may drift lower in coming weeks. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Buyer activity: Mortgage applications fell 3.8% week over week. MBA
Contracts: Pending home sales slipped 0.8% in June. National Association of Realtors
Prices: National home prices are cooling—Case-Shiller up 2.3% YoY but down 0.3% MoM; FHFA down 0.2% MoM, up 2.8% YoY. S&P GlobalFHFA.gov
Construction: Residential construction spending dipped 0.7% in June; new-home sales ran at 627k SAAR with 9.8 months’ supply. Census.govCensus.gov

Rates: A slight tailwind for affordability

Freddie Mac’s weekly survey shows the 30-year fixed at 6.72% (down from 6.74% last week) and the 15-year at 5.85%. Markets are watching softer economic data and the 10-year Treasury for clues on near-term moves. GlobeNewswire

Economy: A softer jobs print raises rate-cut odds

The July Employment Situation reported just 73,000 payroll gains and a tick-up in unemployment to 4.2%. Bond yields eased after the release, a setup that can translate into slightly lower mortgage rates if sustained. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Demand: Applications retreat

The MBA weekly survey shows mortgage applications fell 3.8% for the week ending July 25, with both purchase and refi activity lower. High borrowing costs continue to cap demand even as inventory improves. MBA

Contracts: Pending sales down

Pending Home Sales slipped 0.8% in June—a modest decline that tracks with what agents are seeing: more choices for buyers, but still-tight affordability. National Association of Realtors

Prices: Cooling, not crashing

Two benchmark indices point to a gradual cooldown:

Case-Shiller (May): +2.3% YoY, -0.3% MoM (seasonally adjusted). S&P Global
FHFA HPI (May): +2.8% YoY, -0.2% MoM (seasonally adjusted). FHFA.gov

This combination—more inventory + steady but softer prices—gives qualified buyers more negotiation room than a year ago.

Supply & Construction: Builders cautious

Residential construction spending edged 0.7% lower in June. Meanwhile, new-home sales ran at 627,000 SAAR with 511,000 units for sale (9.8 months’ supply) and a $401,800 median price—evidence that builders are using price and incentives to move inventory. Census.govCensus.gov

Miami & Florida Snapshot

Active listings rising: In the City of Miami, inventory rose to 9,506 homes in July (+7.5% MoM), giving buyers more options. Rocket Mortgage
Asking prices easing at the margin: Miami-Dade median listing price registered $600,000 in July, down from spring levels—another sign of a rebalancing market. FRED
Insurance resilience: Florida expanded funding for the My Safe Florida Home program to help owners harden homes against wind—and potentially earn mitigation credits—important context for affordability here. Kiplinger

What this means for you

Buyers: Slightly lower rates + more inventory = better selection and negotiating power. Locking a rate on dips while keeping a float-down option can help in a choppy market. (If you’re using ITIN or have non-traditional income, we can map a financing path tailored to you.)

Sellers: Pricing to the market matters. With more listings and longer days-on-market in parts of South Florida, accurate pricing and condition (including insurance/roof/wind-mit credits) are key to securing strong offers.